Sunday, 17 April 2011

Jamaica has a Migration and Debt problem.

Jamaica has a Migration and Debt problem.

We need approx 1.6 million people to return.
Jamaica has a Migration and Debt problem.

With median age of 23.7 years it is apparent that many people of working age have either died or left the country.

Compare that with Trinidad's 32.1 years and the United States 36.7.

To put that in perspective.
For Jamaica to match Trinidad's median age of 32.1
Approximately 1.6 million people over the age of 32.1 would have to return to the country.
Almost a 60% increase in population.

Almost 20,000 Jamaicans legally immigrate to the US yearly.
That's more than migrate from Peru, Russia, Guatemala, Kenya and the UK.
All these countries have much larger total populations.

If this rate continues for 10 years that's .2 million people lost to the US alone.
That does not include illegal immigration, the UK, Canada etc.

Estimating from population, birth and death figures from 1953.
It is estimated that over 3 million people have been lost to migration.

The fact is that Jamaica is unlikely to have high economic growth rates (GDP), without a massive return of human capital (or inflation).

Regardless of the billions borrowed.
Instead low taxation and spending (not increasing debt) are needed to aid growth.

Jamaica's Outstanding debt is estimated at 104% of GDP at $12.95 billion US dollars.
Compared to Trinidad's 26% of GDP at $6.35 billion US dollars.

The engine for growth is people.
Even the once mighty United States, could and cannot maintain high growth rates without massive immigration.

Countries Compared (click on images for larger image)
Population Distribution

US Immigration

Current GDP Growth estimates

Historical growth

Historical Inflation


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